Different strategies
Every other billionaire during this period expanded their assets in Russia, Shvetsova found. Every third resorted to complicating ownership structures by transferring asset management to affiliated individuals or funds or by preemptively and indirectly reducing their ownership stake. Every sixth sold their assets abroad.
Shvetsova emphasizes the sharp differences between the top 20 billionaires and the rest of the list: whereas 65% of the top 20 operate in the real economy, the proportion for the remaining billionaires is just 30%. Three-quarters of the top 20 were subject to Western sanctions, versus 42% for the rest.
The top 20 were more active in purchasing assets abroad and selling assets in Russia. Sanctions were intended in part to isolate Russian billionaires and their business structures; in practice, however, the opposite has often been the case, Shvetsova argues. By contrast, the rest of the list invested more in Russia.
These differences reflect different sources of capital and sectoral specializations, says Anastasia Vladimirova, managing partner at IPM Consulting. “The top 20 billionaires typically earned their wealth in export-oriented sectors, and their business models critically depend on access to global markets and Western financing. It is logical that sanctions dealt the most devastating blow to these businesses,” she says, “creating incentives to diversify with foreign assets not connected to Russia.”
Billionaires with smaller fortunes are more often associated with domestically oriented sectors like retail, development, food production, construction and financial services. Their businesses depend on Russian consumer demand and infrastructure, meaning an expanded presence in the domestic market in the era of sanctions is a step forward, Vladimirova notes.
Meanwhile, 10 billionaires have renounced their Russian citizenship, Shvetsova writes. This strategy of distancing was most common in IT, finance and venture capital – sectors not tied to substantial tangible assets in Russia. “New institutional conditions,” she says, “have literally given rise to a new institutional phenomenon: billionaires who are [labeled by the Russian government as] ‘foreign agents’ and ‘extremists.’”
The impact of sanctions
Half of the latest Russian billionaire list is not subject to any sanctions, Shvetsova points out. Among those who were sanctioned, most fell under what she terms “third-order sanctions” – measures imposed by the UK, Japan, New Zealand and Australia that restrict business activity within their jurisdictions but do not cause significant damage.
The toughest US sanctions were applied to 37 Russian billionaires. Among them, 23 are subject to sanctions from both the US and the EU, and 21 were hit by what Shvetsova calls “sanctions bombing” by the US, the EU and other jurisdictions simultaneously.
Billionaires who were not sanctioned have actively invested in domestic projects, strengthening their influence in the Russian market. Nearly 60% of this group did so, Shvetsova estimates. Among those facing the most severe sanctions pressure, the figure was below 40%. At the same time, roughly a quarter of sanctioned billionaires were forced to sell their foreign assets quickly.
Their approaches to ownership rights also differed sharply. Only 15% of billionaires untouched by sanctions have resorted to transferring assets to affiliated persons, versus 62% among those under the toughest restrictions.